Oppositions of the next decade
Trying to ask the right questions about how the world will look
We’ve just recorded our FOUR HUNDREDTH episode over at Bungacast. And as with past anniversary episodes (no. 100 / 200 / 300) we’ve tried to broach big themes. We also wanted to present our new Contributors all together and join our individual areas of interest and knowledge. The episode is out on all platforms: YouTube / Spotify / Apple / RSS.
Since 2017 we’ve been exploring the contours of a new world – or rather, of an old world in advanced decay. The ‘End of History’ that followed the closing of the Cold War, the collapse of state socialism, and the historic defeat of the working class itself was ending – so we’ve argued for the past seven years. We’ve been interested in charting populist challenges, the end of US hegemony, emerging multipolarity, the falling political authority of neoliberalism, and the erosion of so many aspects of public life that we’ve inherited from the 20th century, which we can no longer take for granted.
We now want to look forward. The 2010s were the story of populist challenges to neoliberal technocracy from right and from left. We have talked a lot about the failures and defeat of left populism, or of the millennial left, since 2019. This was followed by the pandemic, the lockdowns, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In some sense, we are now in a new phase. The touchstones today seem to be the return of inflation, growing geopolitical friction, and the cooptation or incorporation of right-populism into the establishment.
But so that the episode didn’t become one of those airheaded exercises in speculation or futurology, we set it up so that we would examine key sites of tension, and key oppositions, that are already present and look set to become ever more central in the coming years.
So here below is how we set it out for our own purposes. I’m sharing this to bolster the discussion and also to invite additions and corrections (links below are to Bungacast episodes exploring these issues). Probably the big one missing is something specifically on housing and the asset economy. But let me know what you think.
Politics
Right-populism: insurgency or incorporation
Will the trend of co-optation of right-populism continue (for ex. Meloni being pro-NATO, pro-EU)? Will the new right become the establishment? Is there an ‘elite vibe-shift’ going on, as corporations and institutions adapt to new ethos? How does the conflict between the establishment centre-right and insurgent right play out? Link
The Left: engagement or reclusion
Multipolarity: opportunity or restriction
Does the multipolar world offer more political opportunities or openings? Or are countries or parties going to be stuck in a vice between bigger powers? Is multipolarity good for highly indebted countries? How does a new Cold War play out in the internal life of nations – especially when it is not ‘communism vs capitalism’ as it was in the 20th century? Link / Link
War: inertia or action
As the meme has it, “nothing ever happens” – the big explosion doesn’t actually take place, war doesn’t break out, despite fears. Conflicts are attenuated. This reflects relative domestic inertia too. But is that set to change? Will there be outbreaks of proxy conflicts btwn great powers? (e.g. in the South China Sea) Link / Link
Industry & Economy
Work: precarity or militancy
What will be the effect of the automation of professional jobs? Unemployment/proletarianisation of former white collars? Or loss of autonomy at work for those whose work was previously defined by autonomy (i.e. working for the machine)? What will be the political effects of the proletarianisation of professionals? How to read the nascent signs of labour militancy, esp in the US? Link
Green Capitalism: industry or austerity
Will “build-out” win out over “pull-back”? Does nuclear win the argument? Or will rationing, carbon pricing, even climate lockdowns prevail? Do revolts against net-zero grow? What effect does the incorporation of “right-populism” have on green politics? Do corps & institutions drop their green concerns? How does ‘green capitalism’ play out – is there a shift from ‘ethical consumption’ to a focus on production? Link
Tech: exhaustion or enchantment
Do the emerging signs of “techlash” continue to grow? Do we get fed up with social media entirely? The multiverse failed – will augmented reality fail likewise? The “4th industrial revolution” has not delivered on its promises to increase productivity. Will AI give it the boost it needs? Will it save capitalism? Link / Link
Ideas & Art
Truth: the image or the word
Postmodernity was the predominance of the image over the word. But after 50 years, will we see the image dethroned? If AI can make any image and make it look real, does photo/video serve as evidence of anything anymore? Does this spark a return to the word? Or to face-to-face, embodied contact? Or in a world where anything might be a deepfake, is there a turn to the irrational? What happens to cinema and music under the impact of AI? Link
Belief: reason or romanticism
The past decade has seen an intensification of rationalisation (cf. the LinkedIn approach to life). Is a reaction underway? Is there a turn to the irrational underway? Already, contemporary art is often about the mystical, the magical, the ‘indigenous’, etc. Will there be a resurgence of religious belief? Does instrumental reason predominate? Link
Individual & Society
Subjectivity: vulnerability or resilience
The vulnerable subject has been central for at least a decade. The trend for ‘resilience’ builds on it, but implicates a shift, too. What next? Does the cachet of ‘trauma’ begin to wane? Do we get sick of victimhood, or does the trumping of victimhood by left and right only generalise this situation further? Link
Sex: liberation or puritanism
Atomisation and the effect of #metoo seems to have led to a ‘sex recession’. The ‘incel’ phenomenon shows few signs of going away. The rationalisation of intimate relations (e.g. making a flowchart of your gangbang) surely blocks spontaneity and desire. Does this phenomenon accelerate? Is there a backlash against, e.g., choosing partners by itemised list (red flag!) Link
Sociability: virtuality or embodiment
Is increasing virtualisation reaching its limits? Distance education, for instance, looks set to continue growing. But in other areas, an emphasis on face-to-face contact may make itself felt, particularly as questions of trust/mistrust make themselves felt in the digital realm.